We are just over half way through the 26th New Japan Pro Wrestling G1 Climax tournament, and boy has it been an interesting ride so far.
We’ve got an unexpected veteran residing atop the A-Block alongside the IWGP Heavyweight Champion, the biggest star in Japan is working hurt, slowly clawing his way back to contention after some huge upset losses, the invaders from Pro Wrestling Noah shining very brightly thus far, and a B-Block with a SIX WAY TIE for first place! Four matches remain on either side, with a possible eight points left to be scored.
Before we get into the specifics, let’s take a look at the updated brackets after ten nights of action…
A-Block Standings:
Togi Makabe – 8
Kazuchika Okada – 8
Naomichi Marufuji – 6
Hiroyoshi Tenzan – 4
SANADA – 4
Tama Tonga – 4
Hirooki Goto – 4
Hiroshi Tanahashi – 4
Bad Luck Fale – 4
Tomohiro Ishii – 4
B-Block Standings:
Michael Elgin – 6
YOSHI-HASHI – 6
Yuji Nagata – 6
Tetsuya Naito – 6
Katsuhiko Nakajima – 6
Kenny Omega – 6
Toru Yano – 4
Tomoaki Honma – 4
Katsuyori Shibata – 4
EVIL – 2
Analyzing the A-Block
Key Players: Okada, Tanahashi, Tenzan, Makabe
Togi Makabe is an interesting case at the halfway point. The 43-year-old, third generation star hasn’t had a clear direction in singles wrestling at all this year, since leaving the NEVER Openweight title picture in 2015. He was not expected to be a relevant factor in this tournament, and here he is leading the pack alongside the IWGP Heavyweight Champion. Realistically, Makabe shouldn’t win. But three of his upcoming matches are against Fale, Goto and Ishii, all names that don’t necessarily need the win either.
Tenzan came into the tournament after taking his best friend, Satoshi Kojima’s spot on a promise that it would be his last G1 ever, and that he would win. While that dream is still technically possible, his path leads through Fale, Goto and Sanada – all possible wins – and he still has a match with Tanahashi. Considering he needs two of those wins just to catch up with where the leaders are now, it’s not looking so good.
Speaking of Tanahashi, the big story surrounding the NJPW ace is that he came in injured, lost three big upsets in a row, and has been struggling his way back into contention. He’s sitting in the same spot most of the A-Block is right now with four points, so of course there’s a chance given who we’re talking about here, but he still has perhaps the hardest lineup in the tournament: Ishii, Tenzan, Marufuji and Okada.
There are two likely situations: Okada goes into the last week chasing Makabe, having to get past his greatest rival in Tanahashi to tie up the score; a win over Makabe would edge him into the finals on a technicality. OR, Tanahashi fights his way back picking up the six points he needs to be in contention heading into the final week, where he and Okada will meet with the score all tied up to determine who advances to the finals. Either way this road ends with Tanahashi vs. Okada playing a pivotal role in the tournament outcome.
Analyzing the B-Block
Key Players: Elgin, Yoshi-Hashi, Naito, Omega
Keep Your Eye On: Shibata
The B-Block is basically anyone’s game for the taking right now. It was always expected that either Naito or Omega would be taking the Block, but with the emergence of Yoshi-Hashi as a shockingly popular star in this tournament, and IWGP Intercontinental Champion Michael Elgin dominating every match and looking great in the process, it’s hard to tell which direction they’ll ultimate go in.
There’s also a possible secondary story to watch out for that closely mirrors the path of Hiroshi Tanahashi in the A-Block. Shibata is the current NEVER Openweight Champion and one of the best stars in the world today. He’s been on fire recently and it was expected that he’d do very well. But after just recently losing a quick comedy match to Yano, and a string of losses keeping him at just four points, he’s been showing more and more frustration with every match. There could be a redemption arc in there for him. His remaining opponents are EVIL and Nagata, which could be an easy four points, but also Omega and Yoshi-Hashi.
I do not expect Elgin to take this, but given his lineup ahead I’m starting to change my tune. NJPW seems to be very high on him, and he is in Tanahashi’s pocket, not to mention his remaining matches are against Honma, Nakajima, Yano and Yoshi-Hashi, which isn’t exactly a brick wall of stopping power. He could easily find himself in the finals.
Naito and Omega remain the obvious options, as the two leaders of the most popular heel factions in Japan, Los Ingobernables de Japon and the Bullet Club, respectively. They do still have a match against one another, which will be extremely interesting points-wise. Naito has a match with stable-mate EVIL, plus Nakajima and Yoshi-Hashi. Kenny still has matches against Nagata, Nakajima and Shibata.
Yoshi-Hashi has done well for himself, but his time is likely up. He’s still got a match with Yano that could be an easy win, but the rest of his matches are key players in Elgin, Naito and Shibata, none of which he is likely to beat.
There’s really not a clear trajectory in the B-Block like there is with the Okada/Tanahashi/Makabe situation, and it’s difficult to make predictions. The smart money has been on Omega and Naito all along, and they both have a comparable road left to the finals, so it really could go either way. At this point, my best guest at a tournament final match is Okada vs. Omega.
What will be very interesting is if the champ happens to go over, winning the tournament, and would presumably get to pick his own opponent at Wrestle Kingdom come January. This is so far outside of the norm for New Japan, but this would be the perfect year to run a main event with the three big faction leaders – Okada, Naito and Omega – facing off for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship. The promotion generally doesn’t do triple threat matches, and there’s never, ever been one in the Tokyo Dome main event, but there also had never been a ladder match in company history until earlier this year, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
So there you have it. We have four nights for each Block remaining, followed by the G1 Finals at Ryogoku Sumo Hall on August 14th. Along with the tournament final match, that show will feature Jay Lethal defending the ROH Championship against Satoshi Kojima – a gift from New Japan for sacrificing his spot in the tournament – as well as an IWGP Tag Team Championship match between defending champions Jay and Mark Briscoe, and the Bullet Club challengers Hangman Page and Yujiro Takahashi.
